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Nice Job on that $136.20 Bomb At Calder!

Postby Michael Pizzolla » Wed Dec 19, 2007 12:20 pm

Dear Handicappers and Friends,

Just got back to the States, and I was thrilled to get an email from a very good handicapper about a bomb at Calder.

One of the things that I really appreciated about his email was that he was very honest about how he could have improved--specifically, that he felt he could have been more prepared.

Now, having said that, I will point out that it was a mile and a half race on the Turf, not some run of the mill 6 furlong race. So, in his defense, it was a very good call, an excellent call to find the Type 2 pattern.

Could he have made more in the race? Of course. We all can, after the fact. I appreciate that he really 'got' that preparation is so important. That helps us invest with confidence.

The quote I love that he referenced is the old Zen saying: 'When you sit, sit; when you stand, stand; above all, don't wobble.'

I thought that his email was so instructive, I've asked him if it's ok to post it on the Forum, and he graciously said yes.

Enjoy.

All the best,

Michael




Hello Michael,

Thanks for the latest rant; I get energized just reading them.


You asked for progress reports, so here you go.

50 – 1 horses can't win!!; can they???



Working Calder on Saturday ( 15th) and had only a few minutes to look at race 11. Two patterns, 5 and 8. 8 is second on PTD speed and third on consensus, five way low. 8 was second on PBS and 6 points higher than the third horse. 12 was tops on both PTD speed and PBS. I looked at the odds on 8; 50-1, had to rush to the window, without even checking the 12, and bet him across, my normal $5 as I am not a heavy hitter.

Since high odds horses finish second or third at least twice as often as they win ( conventional wisdom, or should it be spelled wis-doom?), I put him third only in a tri under the 1,6,11, and 12. Did not have time to get exactas as the bell rang.

Lack of preparation and only getting up halfway ( 'when you want to stand….stand'). 11 was third on the PTD. Now you can guess the results. 8-11-12. The eight paid $136 to win!! The $5 across returned around $500!!!


50 – 1 horses can't win………unless they go to 60 – 1!! When I have two strong keys, I usually use the two keys (8 & 12, in this case) 1 &2, and 1 & 3, and 1 & 4, with about eight other contenders in the 10-cent supers. This costs about $33. The ten center paid over $7,000!!! A lesson in attempting to play too many tracks and lack of preparation.



Another great race that day;, 5th at FG. A turf route for maidens, love these. 3 and 9 had patterns; 3 a TI +d+J, 9 a TIII+S+d. The only other turfer was the 1, who just missed in his maiden at a turf route. 3 and 9 had better numbers on the PTD and also on PBS. Ran 3 – 9 – 1. $1 ex paid $60 and the $1 tri around $370.


The patterns are changing everything!! It is interesting to listen to my friends tell me all the reasons why they cannot bet THAT horse! I realize I used to think that way and am gradually evolving away from the conventional numbers and 'wis-doom'.

Thanks again for giving us the patterns and the confidence to use them.


Have a Merry Christmas and a Healthy New Year!!


L.D.


Dear ,

Great calls on both races.

In that Calder turf race, the 8 was a beautiful Type 2 pattern,3rd start after a layoff, and if you notice it followed the same pattern winning the race on December 15th as it did in its last win: A close, then an early speed prep, then a test, then the win. If handicapping the day of the last win, it would have looked like a Type 2.

Black Magic's OPM Odds line put the 12 on top at 9/2 and the 8 second at 6-1. The 11 was tied for fifth, but had HUGE APV in the field. BTW, the program listed the 8 as having the only AFP--a Type 2, as the 5 horse's pattern was handled as out of date for a prep for today.

A $136.20 horse! Well done!

I'm so happy you're applying the patterns and seeing their power in your own game!

..., would you mind if I posted this exchange of emails on the forum? I would not use your name, just your analysis of the race, and my response.

Thanks so much!




Seasons Greetings Michael,



Relative to your request, I do not mind at all, hopefully it will be helpful to others.


Thanks for the feedback on how Black Magic saw this. I will review my time frames on patterns and recency, lately I have been using 60-75 days between pattern races and 45-60 for last race. Looks like Black Magic has this handled, I am anxious to see the finished product. Also thanks for mentioning the repeat pattern, this always makes the pattern stronger.



Regards,


L.D.
Michael Pizzolla
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